Erdogan aspires to elevate Turkey to the status of a global power, drawing on political Islam and neo-Ottoman ideologies. The recent arrest of his key political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, has revealed that the president's neo-Ottoman vision is not limited to foreign policy but also serves as a tool for eliminating domestic political opponents.
Through overnight, baseless accusations, İmamoğlu was charged with organized crime. To make matters worse, his university degree - a prerequisite for running for the Turkish presidency - was revoked. In other words, Erdogan successfully carried out a "political assassination" to secure his grip on power. It is important to emphasize that he would not have been able to act so ruthlessly at home if he did not feel strong on the international stage. The Turkish leader is convinced that his external successes grant him the freedom to do as he pleases domestically.
While the world was shocked by the heated exchange in the Oval Office between the US president and his Ukrainian counterpart, Turkey proudly showcased a very different image: Erdogan holding an umbrella over Volodymyr Zelenskyy's head in Ankara. This moment was not just a PR stunt portraying him as a strong leader offering protection to the "needy" but also became a symbol of "active and respectful Turkish diplomacy."
Erdogan's secret to success has been his willingness to push Turkey beyond its borders, combining soft power with hard power. In Africa, alongside establishing embassies and airline routes, Turkey provides military equipment and trains local armies.
This same strategy can be seen in Ukraine and Syria. While supplying drones to Kyiv, Erdogan has avoided adopting sanctions against Russia, allowing him to maintain a delicate balance with Moscow. Turkey's strategic position enabled it to broker the crucial 2022 "grain deal," ensuring the continued export of Ukrainian agricultural products.
Turkey's military and geopolitical clout has also significantly strengthened its standing in Europe, especially at a time when NATO's future remains uncertain. Unsurprisingly, Erdogan seeks to be part of the emerging European military alliance, a move that would provide him with protection against Moscow while neutralizing the influence of Greece and Cyprus in regional conflicts.
Toward the West, Erdogan presents a friendly façade, while in the Middle East, he maintains a tough image. Toward the end of last year, he began paving the way for a ceasefire with the Kurdish insurgency. The Turkish president extended an olive branch to the Kurdish rebel leadership in an attempt to end a 41-year-long conflict, yet at the same time, he issued a public warning, stating: "The hand that reaches out in peace is also capable of striking like an iron fist wrapped in a velvet glove."
Indeed, by late February, without any visible concessions on Erdogan's part, PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan announced from his Turkish prison cell the end of his organization's armed struggle and called on his fighters to lay down their arms. Clearly, this move was aimed at Turkey's domestic politics - Erdogan needs Kurdish parliamentary support to remove constitutional term limits for the sitting president. Shortly after, Kurdish autonomy forces in northern Syria were also forced to sign an agreement with the new administration of Ahmad al-Sharaa, widely perceived as Erdogan's puppet.
In conclusion, Erdogan's foreign policy serves as a powerful strategic tool, advancing both Turkey's global ambitions and his personal political aspirations. His ambiguous approach - respectful toward the West and uncompromising in the Middle East - grants Turkey diplomatic flexibility, allowing him to secure achievements even after two decades in power.
