Contrary to earlier expectations that recognition of a Palestinian state would be conditioned on the release of hostages and a demand that Hamas must disarm, Australia, Britain and Canada announced that their declaration would take immediate effect, joined later by Portugal.
In other words, the more serious scenario has materialized. It is highly likely that French President Emmanuel Macron, who initiated the entire process and is expected to deliver the declaration at the UN tomorrow, will not "outflank" his counterparts and will also refrain from attaching such conditions. This is not good news.
I listened to Keir Starmer's statement. While his move and those of his colleagues are clearly unacceptable, it is evident that they stem from Israel's glaring public diplomacy failure and from the protracted war, which has dragged on far beyond the limits of Israel's "diplomatic breathing room."
Responsibility for this diplomatic failure rests squarely on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has weakened Israel's public diplomacy apparatus instead of reinforcing it at this critical time. Responsibility for the war's prolongation lies with Netanyahu but also with the military leadership, first and foremost under former IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi but also under current Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. Israel's security doctrine has long held that wars must be short. The government and the military have violated that principle, and the consequences are clear, for all to see.
Even though this step is infuriating and wrong, it is primarily an insult to Israel rather than a measure with real practical impact. One hundred forty-six countries recognized a "Palestinian state" decades ago. Palestinian "embassies" have existed in Western capitals for many years. None of that has changed anything. Israel must therefore respond rationally, not emotionally.
The real challenge Israel faces this week is the European Union's reported intention to harm its trade agreements with Israel. Such a move would damage the Israeli economy, and economic damage reduces Israel's ability to finance its security needs.
Accordingly, Netanyahu must respond in a way that avoids triggering a boomerang effect that would ultimately harm Israel. Instead, he should take targeted steps that directly punish those who harmed Israel while strengthening its domestic interests. For example, closing the British, Canadian and French consulates in East Jerusalem, and denying entry to the Australian representative who is permanently based in Ramallah.
