Donald Trump's plan is emerging as thick bait with a hook that caught both Israel and Hamas. It might have seemed logical that the terrorist organization had reached a dead end alone, yet Jerusalem found itself trapped in the same narrow corridor, chasing after it.
Since the assassination attempt in Doha, Qatari and Egyptian officials have whispered in Washington's ear and meticulously crafted this trap, one that would bring the sides together for new talks in Cairo. Now, the boat seems to be sailing toward the end of the war. The fish are thrashing, the rod is heavy, and the old man's hand is trembling.
Hamas' response, published Friday evening — deliberately timed to temporarily mute Israel's political storm — did not include unqualified agreement to even one core clause. The terrorist organization's consent to release all living and deceased hostages was bound by three conditions: "in a manner that will achieve a cessation of the war and a full withdrawal from the Strip," "upon fulfillment of conditions on the ground for the exchange process," and "the movement is ready to enter immediate negotiations through mediators to discuss these details."
Hamas' declared support for a technocratic Palestinian government was merely a recycled position. With its governing structure in Gaza collapsing, most members of its "political bureau" and their replacements have been killed or exiled, few senior figures now remain capable of running the Strip. In practice, parts of Gaza are already controlled by rival clans and militias. By doing so, Hamas chose to ignore one of the flagship elements of Trump's plan: the international council, which provoked fury and disgust within its ranks. Its aim is to pave the way for a "mini-Hezbollah" model, in which its "military wing" would gradually rebuild and influence decision-making behind the scenes, though on a smaller scale than Hassan Nasrallah's Lebanon in its early years.
In its official response, Hamas ignored the rest of the "controversial" clauses — exile routes, disarmament, the international force, and other issues — sidestepping them and throwing them into the black hole known as "intra-Palestinian dialogue." Since Hamas' coup in Gaza in 2007, several rounds of talks between its leadership and senior Fatah figures have taken place. The conciliatory declarations at the end of each round never materialized, and nothing was implemented. That is precisely the fate Hamas envisions for all proposals concerning its disarmament and the exile of its remaining leaders.
Still, Jerusalem's assumption that rejecting the plan outright would justify continued warfare turned out to be wishful thinking. Hamas' selective silence on the contentious clauses opened the door for Washington and the mediators to impose their own, softer interpretation. From their perspective, the organization's numerous qualifications are largely irrelevant. After all, who decides what constitutes "the manner that will achieve an end to the war and a full withdrawal"? The same goes for "conditions on the ground" and "negotiations on details" — all of which they regard as "technical matters" solvable through talks. Thus, Hamas' evasions are seen as "non-opposition" rather than "obstruction or refusal."
In interviews with foreign media, Hamas officials abroad have been far more explicit, perhaps because their words carry no cost. Moussa Abu Marzouk said the conditions for releasing all hostages are ending the war, a full withdrawal from Gaza, and humanitarian aid for the population. These, he said, are the terms for negotiation. He added that it was "impossible" to release all living and deceased hostages within 72 hours, as stipulated in Trump's plan, claiming Hamas would need months to locate the remains under the rubble. "The Palestinian weapons," he emphasized, "will be transferred to the Palestinian state once it is established." Osama Hamdan reiterated Hamas' rejection of any administration in Gaza that is not Palestinian.
Hamas intends to raise these "remarks" during the talks, hoping to enjoy the best of both worlds: forcing a long-term ceasefire on Israel while releasing only a minimal number of hostages, all while preserving what remains of its forces in Gaza, several thousand terrorists under a reduced "military wing" command. For now, the overseas leadership's gamble on Trump's mercurial nature appears to be paying off. Still, Washington's patience is wearing dangerously thin. The White House has little tolerance left for further delays.
The sides may ultimately converge on a partial framework resembling the August Witkoff proposal. The Arab mediators hope that inertia will take its course: the deal will go through, weeks will pass, Israel will enter election season, political attention in Jerusalem will turn inward, and the diminished threat in the south will fade from memory. Yet the atrocities of October 7 cannot be forgotten. Israel, under any government, will continue working in Gaza for years to eradicate terrorism, even if a prolonged ceasefire is in place. That is something Hamas and the mediators seem not to grasp.
