The series of alarming reports about a renewed Iranian threat, emerging about six months after the end of Operation Rising Lion, has unsettled Israelis who experienced the 12 days of fighting firsthand. The shift in tone reflects genuine concern in Israel, following intelligence assessments pointing to Iranian efforts to accelerate missile production and possibly even to test the rehabilitation of its nuclear program. Added to this is Iran's internal situation, which could serve as a catalyst for the regime to divert attention toward an external conflict.
The discussion began with a report on NBC that was only partially accurate, claiming Iran has the capability to produce 3,000 long-range surface-to-surface missiles within a short period of time. The reality is far from that, as Iran is not capable of manufacturing missiles on that scale so quickly. Still, security officials acknowledge in conversations with Israel Hayom that Iran's motivation in recent weeks to rebuild its missile array has grown, with a particular emphasis on launchers, which are a bottleneck in the rate of missile launches toward Israel.
According to Israeli assessments, Iran is seeking to significantly increase not only its missile stockpile but, more importantly, the number of launchers, in order to carry out an opening strike that would paralyze Israel and its air defense systems through the launch of a large volume of missiles.
Another report, published by Axios, said Israel suspects that a military exercise currently underway in Iran is a cover for a surprise attack Iran is planning against Israel. Here, too, there is a kernel of truth. Israel is indeed monitoring the exercise, but according to security sources, there is no concrete intelligence indicating that Iran has decided to use it as camouflage for a surprise strike. It is reasonable to assume that whoever leaked Israeli concerns about the exercise also sought to use the publication as a warning to Iran, making clear that Israel is aware of the drill and is closely tracking it.
Iran is a "wounded animal"
This is the place to positively note the shift in Israeli thinking since October 7, and the fact that Israel is closely monitoring developments in Iran and is not once again falling into the trap of assuming Iranian capabilities have been destroyed for the long term and that the threat has been pushed far into the future. In Israel, officials understand that Iran is a "wounded animal." If before Operation Rising Lion it sought Israel's destruction and built capabilities toward that end, then after the operation its motivation has not declined but, on the contrary, has only intensified.
In recent months, Israel assessed that Iran, and Israel as well, required a certain period of recovery after Operation Rising Lion to rebuild its missile infrastructure. The prevailing assumption was therefore that it would take time before the next round. However, as noted, the intelligence Israel is closely following points to an acceleration in the rehabilitation of Iran's missile array, alongside some activity aimed at attempting to restart its nuclear program.
One of the most troubling variables that has received less media attention in recent days is Iran's highly complex internal situation, reflected, among other things, in the ongoing erosion of its currency. Israel does not rule out the possibility that, in order to cope with its domestic problems, the Iranian regime may seek to initiate an external war with Israel to divert public attention away from the country's economic and other difficulties.
In any case, senior officials told Israel Hayom that the arena most troubling Israel's defense establishment leaders at this time is Iran, and the greatest fear is a miscalculation or a surprise of which Israel would be unaware. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the issue last night, saying, "We know that Iran has been conducting exercises recently. We are following this, making the necessary preparations. And I want to make clear to Iran: any action will be met with a very harsh response."
Meanwhile, Israel's defense establishment is preparing all the intelligence and operational material Netanyahu will need for discussions with President Trump. The central problem, as analyzed in Israel, is that while Trump is committed to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, he has not promised to remove the threat posed by surface-to-surface missiles, which Israel has also rightly defined as an existential threat. As a result, much will depend on the meeting between Netanyahu and Trump at the end of the month.
