Israel cannot base its security on the assumption that, when the decisive moment comes, the US will do the job for it. The American elections offer an opportunity to reassess that dependence.
The strategic question is not simply who occupies the White House, but what Israel will do if the US administration refrains from attacking Iran, diplomatic pressure on Israel intensifies and its enemies use the time to rebuild their strength.
The answer must be a shift from reactive warfare to a sustained, proactive campaign. Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas are more than missiles, tunnels and command centers. Their power also rests on revenue streams, commercial companies, procurement networks, technology, governing institutions and networks of influence. As long as these mechanisms remain operational, military achievements risk becoming little more than a lull during which the next threat takes shape.
Israel must prepare for two scenarios regarding Iran: continued US economic pressure or an agreement between Washington and Tehran. In the first scenario, Israel should contribute intelligence and enforcement capabilities to combat sanctions evasion. In the second, it must have an independent strategy for reducing the threat. Both require substantial investment in financial intelligence, covert operations, cyber capabilities, and legal and diplomatic tools alongside military capabilities.
Preventing a resurgence
With Hezbollah, the challenge is to prevent the organization from rebuilding. Striking weapons stockpiles is not enough if Hezbollah can replenish its revenues, transfer funds and purchase new weapons. Israel must combine intelligence gathering, the exposure of financing networks and cooperation with law enforcement authorities worldwide. The goal is to make it harder for Hezbollah to convert money into military power and political control in Lebanon.
Preventing Hamas from rebuilding its strength also requires an alternative governing authority. Targeting commanders and infrastructure will not be enough if the organization continues to control the distribution of resources, collect revenues and dictate the daily lives of Gaza's residents. A functioning civilian and security administration, backed by regional and international partners, is needed to govern the Gaza Strip and prevent Hamas from regaining control of aid and the economy.
At the same time, Israel must seriously address the question of Qatari influence. It cannot settle for harsh rhetoric while avoiding scrutiny of financial ties, political dependencies and influence operations. A consistent policy is needed, including transparency in foreign funding, scrutiny of conflicts of interest, oversight of lobbying activities and the exposure of wrongdoing through verifiable evidence.
Ties to Qatar do not, in themselves, constitute evidence of a crime. Credible suspicions, however, demand investigation and enforcement.
This campaign must also begin at home. A divided society, institutions that lack public trust and decision-making processes influenced by foreign interests all create vulnerabilities. Protecting against them requires credible institutions, a free press and a government capable of providing the public with evidence-based information. Credibility is a strategic asset that is difficult to restore once lost.
Centralized coordination is essential
Turning this approach into policy requires a joint framework bringing together the defense establishment, the Foreign Ministry, law enforcement agencies and economic authorities, under the direct responsibility of Israel's political leadership. This framework must set objectives, allocate resources and measure results: How many revenue sources have been blocked? Which procurement routes have been disrupted? To what extent has the enemy's ability to rebuild been reduced?
Covert operations must serve a clear political objective and remain subject to the law and oversight.
Budget priorities must also change accordingly. Alongside essential investment in the Israel Defense Forces, dedicated funding must be allocated to asset tracing, financial investigations, international enforcement and legal defense. These tools can help preserve military gains for longer and reduce the need for another round of fighting.
Strategic independence also requires cultivating alliances. Israel must work with both US political parties, Europe and regional partners, while using policy and diplomacy to reduce its isolation.
Israel cannot decide who will fight alongside it. It can decide whether to keep waiting for its enemies to rebuild their strength or start preventing them from doing so.
The author is a former head of the Mossad's Harpoon financial warfare unit.
