Three weeks into the war against Iran and Hezbollah, it sometimes seems as though the Iranian regime has not buckled and is standing firm. This is an image broadcast through Iranian propaganda channels, and – regrettably – many researchers and commentators in Israel and the West have embraced it, simply because they lack patience. But if we measure a state's durability against real economic, Western, and structural benchmarks, it becomes clear that the regime is in serious trouble and is standing on the brink.
Illusory resilience. What observers in the West – or among certain commentators – interpret as regime "resilience" (the ability to survive sanctions, internal protests, and external pressure) is, in fact, an advanced stage of structural disintegration.
The shift from "state" to "occupying force." The Iranian regime has ceased to function as a state that provides services and welfare to its citizens. It has become a military-ideological force behaving like an "occupying force" within its own land. It relies solely on repression – not on legitimacy.
Video: Basij operatives eliminated in Tehran. Credit: Arab media
The survival strategy is the problem. The actions the regime takes to survive in the short term – violent repression, regional expansion through proxies like Hezbollah, and neglect of the economy in favor of security budgets – are precisely the actions accelerating its long-term collapse. This is a vicious cycle in which every act of self-defense weakens the state's foundational stability.
"The collapse plan." The regime has no real solution to Iran's fundamental problems, and so it simply "manages the collapse." That is, it is willing to sacrifice Iran's social fabric, its environment, and its economy, as long as the ruling core – Khamenei's son and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – remains in power for one more day.
Legitimacy is fading. As the revolution's religious and political legitimacy fades, the regime grows more militaristic. This is a sign of weakness, not strength – a strong regime does not need to massacre its subjects in order to stay in power.
Beyond general headlines, it is possible to enumerate Israel's achievements (and those of the United States) in the war and to identify damage so severe as to amount to the partial destruction of the regime – something that is not happening to Israel or the United States in return (because the Iranian regime is failing to strike assets of the Israeli state, such as IDF bases and, in particular, the air force and the bodies responsible for Israel's defense; the economy is not suffering; and Israel is managing a level of routine existence beyond what was expected. The Iranian regime, in its frustration, is therefore directing its missiles at residential buildings and civilians – and even there, its achievement, for all the pain on our side, is negligible.
Elimination of senior regime figures. The leader Khamenei, the minister of intelligence and senior members of his office, the head of Iran's National Security Council Larijani, who in practice ran Iran in recent months, the regime's military strategist Shamkhani, IRGC commanders and senior officers, and others.
It should be emphasized that while replacements have been appointed for these figures, in Iran's case, a successor never fills his predecessor's shoes. Mojtaba, the son of the former leader who was eliminated, has not appeared in public and fears assassination. There is no precedent in all of Iranian history for a ruler who is not seen in the field and does not provide moral backing for his supporters. This case, and others like it, severely weakens the regime – because it appears that the new leader is not involved in decision-making at this critical moment, and there is no ability to determine whether to continue the war.
Bases and facilities of the IRGC – whether intended to advance the missile program or suppress the population – are being struck. These are interconnected issues in Iran: if one is struck, so is the other. Furthermore, this may embolden the public to resume protests against the regime and open up an additional front against it.
Nuclear facilities and scientists – the most critical threat against Israel and the Western world – and each day brings news of another facility struck, and more scientists eliminated.
Because of these achievements and more, one should not confuse Tehran's cruelty and stubbornness with genuine "resilience." The system is undergoing self-cannibalization, consuming the state's resources to keep the ruling structure alive, inevitably leading to a breaking point.
