Several weeks ago, when the ceasefire in the war with Iran was announced, a senior Israeli official said there was only one ball to keep your eye on in the negotiations: the nuclear issue. If Iran refuses to give it up, sets conditions or tries to deceive, that means it intends to maintain a nuclear capability with the aim of eventually reaching a bomb.
The official said at the time that everything else, Hormuz, the missiles and support for proxies, was less important. Hormuz had been open before the war in any case, and it would be open afterward as well. The missiles and the assistance to proxies would be difficult to place under enforceable restrictions, but the nuclear issue is the Archimedean point for which the Iran war was launched, both the first and the second. The regime knows that giving it up would not only be an admission of defeat, but also a practical distancing from the possibility of obtaining nuclear weapons, and through them immunity, in the foreseeable future.
The details of the Iranian proposal published by Al Jazeera show that Iran is insisting on continuing to hold on to the nuclear issue. It is indeed prepared to freeze enrichment for an extended period, 15 years according to the report, and to dilute the highly enriched uranium it possesses, 440 kilograms to a level of 60%, but it is not prepared to halt activity at its nuclear facilities.
This proposal is better than what Iran was prepared to accept several weeks ago, but it is far from enough. The current regime in Iran is more extreme than its predecessor, and hungry for revenge. Leaving it with any capability, even a minimal one, could be an opening that invites exploitation. President Donald Trump's insistence on this issue is justified. Anyone who thinks Hormuz is what is driving him is mistaken. The main focus of the contacts, which have not stopped for a moment, is the nuclear issue. Around it, the agreement will stand or fall.
Waiting for Iran to break
Iran, as is its way, wants to drag things out, hoping something will happen along the way. It is willing to give up Hormuz now, and it is demanding the lifting of sanctions now, but it wants to give up the nuclear issue only at the end, in measured doses. So far, it is not breaking, despite the enormous economic pressure being applied to it and the blockade that is beginning to exact a heavy price from its oil fields. In the West, the economic damage caused to Iran since the beginning of the war is estimated at some $300 billion to $400 billion, almost double the official Iranian estimate. This is intensifying the internal debate, which Trump has noted in his speeches, between senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials who continue to hold a hard line and the political and diplomatic leadership, which is willing to compromise to save the country.
The series of security discussions held in Washington over the weekend sparked speculation about the possibility that Trump would order a return to fighting. Israel has a direct interest in this, because it is reasonable to assume that just as the cessation of hostilities was coordinated, so too would the resumption of fighting be coordinated. It also has an interest because a return to fighting would mean the return of the threat to the Israeli home front. The Israel Defense Forces is prepared for this in both attack and defense, but it appears that the US president continues to prioritize economic pressure in the hope that Iran will break before ordering renewed strikes.
Releasing the veto in Lebanon
Should a decision be made to renew the campaign against Iran, Israel wants it to also "release" the US veto on broad attacks in Lebanon, in order to increase military pressure on Hezbollah. The partial immunity the terrorist organization enjoys, together with the constant threat it poses to residents of the northern Israel and to IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon, is causing deep frustration in the IDF. At the same time, it appears to be breathing new life into Hezbollah's sails. This is unequivocally bad news for Israel, and it requires a solution as part of the strategic dialogue between Jerusalem and Washington on Iran. The renewed unification of fronts, which now appears to be receding, runs counter to Israel's interest and will also make it harder to reach a diplomatic arrangement in Lebanon.
The Lebanese front will occupy Israel over the next 24 hours also in connection with the Lag B'Omer celebration at Mount Meron. Despite the IDF's Home Front Command restrictions barring gatherings of more than 200 people in the area, the IDF and police fear attempts by ultra-Orthodox Jews to break through the road to the mountain. In the background are also various reports that ultra-Orthodox Jews have been equipping themselves with cold weapons in order to confront security forces, which requires making clear that anyone who violates the instructions will be arrested and jailed.
