During Operation Roaring Lion, and following Iranian pressure, Hezbollah joined the campaign against Israel. Since joining the fighting, it has fired dozens of missiles and UAVs every day, most of them at communities in northern Israel.
The IDF responded with a ground maneuver involving five divisions, seized a strip of territory about 8 kilometers (5 miles) beyond the border, and created a buffer zone to push back the threat of direct anti-tank missile fire and the danger of an invasion of northern communities. In effect, the Gaza model has been copied to Lebanon, and the line where the IDF is deployed is called the Yellow Line, just as in Gaza.
The IDF maneuver did push back the threat of invasion and anti-tank missile fire, but it did not prevent rocket fire, most of which is being carried out by Hezbollah's Badr Unit, which is positioned north of the Litani River and launches most of the rockets and UAVs at northern Israeli communities. Following the ceasefire and diplomatic talks between the US and Iran, the Americans decided to launch a peace process between Israel and Lebanon, which so far has included meetings between ambassadors in Washington under White House auspices.
As a result of these meetings, a ceasefire was declared in Lebanon, and President Donald Trump restricted the IDF to responsive action only in southern Lebanon, barring strikes in Beirut and the Beqaa Valley, where Hezbollah's command-and-control systems are located. The Iranians made their participation in the talks conditional on a halt to fire in Lebanon as well, and the Americans, taking a broad strategic view and believing that a deal with Iran would weaken Hezbollah, decided to impose operational restrictions on Israel in Lebanon.
Forces in the field are exposed
Hezbollah is exploiting the ceasefire to regroup and prepare for the continuation of the war. At the same time, it continues to exert pressure on northern Israeli communities through violations of the ceasefire by rocket and UAV fire. The IDF, which is not free to operate on scale, is responding only to specific threats and is not acting to strike infrastructure and command centers deep inside Lebanese territory. IDF forces deployed along the Yellow Line are static and exposed to Hezbollah attacks.
The terrorist organization has begun operating explosive drones, similar to those used in Ukraine, which are striking IDF soldiers inside Lebanon. These explosive drones, some of which are fiber-optic-guided, are immune to the IDF's electronic defense measures, or electronic warfare systems. They are cheap, simple, easy to operate and hard to detect. During the war in Ukraine, the IDF failed to adequately study explosive drones and develop an effective defense against them. It will now take time to develop a defense system against these UAVs.
The State of Israel must make clear to our American allies that this situation, in which we are exposed to attacks from Lebanon while our ability to respond is limited, cannot continue much longer. The ongoing contacts with the Iranians, because of which IDF operations are being restrained, must be limited to a matter of days. The linkage between the negotiations with Iran and restraint in the north must end soon. Until then, the IDF should reduce forces that are not required on the line of contact inside Lebanon.
It appears that the war in the north is far from over, and it is likely to continue even after the campaign in Iran ends.
