Recently, the Trump administration demonstrated once again its ability to do the unexpected – sometimes to the detriment of Israel and sometimes to our benefit.
On the negative side of the ledger, the president proposed signing a nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia that recognizes its right to enrich uranium on its own soil. This agreement would stand in contrast to the arrangement with the United Arab Emirates and many other countries, which receive enriched uranium under the US Atoms for Peace program established by President Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s. This program was designed to prevent the proliferation of military nuclear capacity to problematic countries like Iran.
Yet under the agreement proposed to Riyadh, the Saudis would receive the same enrichment right that the US seeks to deny Iran.
The American zigzag on Saudi Arabia
There are solid strategic reasons for the decision made by Donald Trump. If the US had not granted the Saudis the right to enrich, the Russians and Chinese would have done so. But a nuclear agreement with Riyadh has always been viewed as part of a package deal, along with American defense guarantees, which the Saudis would receive in exchange for establishing relations with Israel. According to the agreement proposed to the Saudis, they would be able to enrich – peacefully, presumably, as long as the current leadership governs the country – while the prospect of normalization fades even further.
The situation from our perspective was far from bright, and then, a day after the president announced the agreement with Saudi Arabia, he backtracked and said that to receive the nuclear deal, the Saudis would first need to join the Abraham Accords. As of now, no one knows whether the nuclear deal will move forward or not. Everything remains shrouded in ambiguity.
While Trump was dealing with the Saudi matter, he hosted Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the White House. "The ultimate objective," Aoun told Trump in front of the cameras in the Oval Office, "is to end the state of hostility between Lebanon and Israel forever." These extraordinary words were accompanied by actions on the ground, as the IDF implemented a pilot withdrawal program from designated areas in southern Lebanon, where the LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces) subsequently patrolled.
Challenges and opportunities for Israel
The uncertainty surrounding Washington policy in the Middle East presents Israel with both challenges and opportunities, and we must be prepared for both. On the Saudi nuclear issue, Israel should welcome the announcement by the president regarding Saudi Arabia's joining the Abraham Accords. There is also a need to encourage the president and offer Riyadh additional incentives to normalize relations with us.
In Lebanon, we must work with Trump and Aoun on adapting a roadmap to ensure the disarmament of Hezbollah and achieve the independence of Lebanon from Iran. As part of such a plan, the LAF would not only replace the IDF in certain parts of southern Lebanon, but would also serve alongside us. Lebanon, too, should join the Abraham Accords.
A swift and decisive response to fluctuations in American policy is particularly critical regarding Iran. If attacked, we must respond quickly and massively, even if Trump orders us once again to cease operations. On the other hand, as long as we are not directly involved in active fighting, we must respect the wishes of the president and maintain maximum restraint. We must always keep in mind that our world is currently in a period of uncertainty, and remain prepared for any scenario – good or bad.
