Just days after the Prime Minister's Office denied any contact between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-head of Egyptian intelligence, Abbas Kamel, in the months preceding the October 7 massacre, a report has surfaced that contradicts that denial, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
According to the report, Kamel, grew increasingly alarmed after two prior cautions about a Gaza-based threat were ignored by Israel in early October 2023. He then phoned Netanyahu directly with a third warning, Arab government officials told the Journal. Days later, Hamas's assault killed roughly 1,200 people and 250 were taken into captivity, triggering a war that transformed the region.
This previously unreported call is among several cautions Netanyahu and his officials reportedly received beforehand, Arab officials and other sources said, fueling scrutiny ahead of next month's elections over the premier's prewar conduct.
A September 2023 call from UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed also flagged signs of an attack, though Netanyahu seemed unconvinced, according to Arab officials, who added that neither warning specified timing or scale. Netanyahu's office did not answer questions from the Journal about Kamel's call, having previously denied any contact occurred with him before October 7. Egyptian and Emirati foreign ministries did not respond either.
Netanyahu has also denied receiving a direct, personal alert from the Emirati ruler, a claim first detailed in the book "843 Days of Abandonment and Resilience" by journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval. The Egyptian warning was first reported by Yediot Ahronot and later by The Atlantic.
Whether the massacre could have been prevented has remained fiercely debated domestically. Netanyahu opposes an independent commission overseen by the Supreme Court, which he calls biased, though polling shows most Israelis favor such an inquiry.
Ahead of the October 27 elections, accountability for October 7 has become a central campaign issue, with 68% of Jewish Israelis in a September Israel Democracy Institute poll citing it as a major factor in their vote.
"The Oct. 7 events certainly overshadow these elections," said Tamar Hermann, a pollster and senior fellow at the institute who led the poll.
Gadi Eisenkot, the opposition front-runner and former top military commander, has accused Netanyahu of dodging accountability and of possible treason over Qatari payments to Gaza that he says aided Hamas.
"The accumulation of facts exposed in recent months…regarding warnings from the heads of Israel's security establishment and various officials from foreign countries leaves no room for doubt: Netanyahu led the State of Israel, in blindness, arrogance, and irresponsibility, to the greatest disaster in its history," Eisenkot said Saturday.
Having held the premiership for a combined 19 years over several terms, Netanyahu has pointed the finger at his security chiefs, insisting they failed to alert him in time. His allies claim officials withheld information, a view Hermann says resonates with his base; security officials reject these accusations.
Polls suggest neither Netanyahu nor the opposition can easily secure a Knesset majority, leaving coalition politics likely, with analysts suggesting Netanyahu may be counting on political deadlock and a subsequent election, which would let him remain as caretaker premier.
Egypt's initial June 2023 warning was vague, urging Israel back to talks with Hamas, officials said. Kamel traveled to Israel in September with a starker message that the Gaza situation could explode, though Israeli officials insisted they had things under control. His call to Netanyahu came just days before the attack, with warnings continuing until 48 hours prior, one official said.
UAE officials also grew alarmed, sharing intelligence with Washington as former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's tone shifted and Hamas-Islamic Jihad meetings increased, officials said.
US Rep. Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in 2023 that Egypt had cautioned Israel. "We know that Egypt had warned the Israelis three days prior that an event like this could happen," he told reporters.
Analysts note failures extended well beyond Netanyahu himself. The Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) lacked Gaza human intelligence, border observers' warnings were dismissed, and a captured Hamas invasion blueprint was deemed unrealistic. Some officials said the belief that Hamas would not attempt such an assault was too entrenched to be shaken regardless.
"I think we probably fell in love too much with our own notions about what we know or how we know our enemy," said Nadav Pollak, a former Israeli intelligence officer who now lectures at Reichman University.
