Fifteen hours have passed since the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, and the IDF is adjusting to the new reality. As of now, forces have not withdrawn, and the Northern Command maintains all combat forces within the villages, understanding that fighting could resume at any moment.
During the first day of the agreement, numerous incidents occurred between IDF forces and Lebanese civilians entering various villages. The IDF's initial response was hesitant, but following the defense minister's directive, clear instructions were issued to all fighters and forces in the sector: any threat would be eliminated immediately without requiring approval from higher ranks. Some cases involved terrorists trying to escape northward, while others involved civilians moving south into the villages. The IDF fired warning shots at those identified as civilians and direct fire at those identified as Hezbollah operatives, resulting in several Lebanese casualties and arrests. The IDF has also announced that nighttime movement would be prohibited, with forces firing at any suspicious activity.
Israel understands that the effectiveness of enforcement in the coming days will determine the situation's outcome. If the IDF responds forcefully and prevents entry to the area while gradually withdrawing to Israel, and subsequently enforces any Hezbollah attempts to rebuild its capabilities throughout the country or enter the area south of the Litani River, our position will be strong, contingent upon international recognition of Israeli enforcement. If enforcement proves weak, Hezbollah will exploit this to rebuild terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Under the agreement, the IDF's withdrawal from the area will be gradual, lasting several weeks until Lebanese Army forces enter. All communication with them is coordinated through the American mechanism, which will later enforce counter-terrorism operations in Lebanon, with representatives in Beirut and Tel Aviv. Simultaneously, Israel has defined three areas it will enforce independently without consulting this mechanism: force build-up and rehabilitation, weapons transfers, and Hezbollah presence and military activity south of the Litani and in border villages. Enforcement will extend throughout Lebanon, not just in the south.
The IDF emphasizes that the Israeli public should understand and be prepared that strong and aggressive enforcement could lead to intense fighting or even full-scale war again. Military officials state, "If we don't enforce against cases of Hezbollah build-up and presence, we'll return here in a few years," emphasizing that the ceasefire doesn't necessarily mark the end of fighting, which could resume at any moment. Intelligence and field units are being structured accordingly for these missions.
However, regarding enforcement throughout Lebanon against smuggling attempts from Syria and Hezbollah infrastructure rehabilitation based on intelligence, the IDF cannot provide a satisfactory answer about how they will determine whether a "farmer," "shepherd," or "construction worker" near the security fence or border area is indeed an innocent civilian or a Hezbollah operative. What will help Israeli intelligence, which notably failed on Oct. 7, identify a single terrorist pulling an anti-tank missile from their tractor cart and firing it at one of the nearby kibbutzim? The military has no solution for this, and currently lacks a buffer zone that could prevent or at least delay such actions.
