Against expectations, a court in Istanbul has extended the detention of Israeli tourists Natali and Mordy Oknin on the grounds they allegedly spied on the country for Jerusalem by 20 days. It appears the Turkish attorney's demand their detention be extended is sending signals that the innocent incident, which took place at the new tourist observation point in Istanbul, is turning into a diplomatic crisis between Jerusalem and Ankara.
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In retrospect, the timing of the couple's arrest is no coincidence. Just one month ago, the two states experienced another crisis of faith when 15 Palestinians were arrested by the Turkish intelligence agency for allegedly spying for the Mossad intelligence agency. Despite widespread coverage of the incident in Turkey, given the fact the suspects were not Israeli citizens, Jerusalem chose not to make the arrests an issue with Ankara. Nevertheless, if the Israeli couple is not released the next time the court convenes on the matter, their arrest could lead Israel straight into a new "hostage" crisis with Turkey.
Those who follow Turkish foreign policy know all too well that such "hostage" cases can be solved in one of two ways: the soft power displayed by Berlin or the tough diplomatic stance adopted by former US President Donald Trump.
When Ankara arrested Turkish-German journalist Deniz Yucel on suspicion of terrorist propaganda and incitement of the people in 2017, both countries found themselves in the grips of such a crisis. Then, one year after the German government was forced to get involved, Turkish media outlets claimed Ankara had only agreed to free Yucel in return for an end to German sanctions on Turkey's military industry. Despite the criticism, Germany succeeded in bringing an end to the affair in February 2018, once Ankara appeared pleased with the result.
Ankara pulled the same "gun" on the US when in October 2016, it imprisoned an American priest by the name of Andrew Bronson on suspicion of espionage. Unlike Germany, the US chose to follow the arrest indirectly for a while. As soon as efforts to free Bronson failed to bear fruit, Washington shifted to a different strategy. In July 2018, Trump and his Vice President Mike Pence released a tweetstorm that directly threatened Turkey's economy and led to the depreciation of the Turkish lira against the US dollar. At the same time, Trump began to enact sanctions on senior Turkish officials involved in the affair. Ultimately, Turkey was forced to fold and release the priest.
It's no secret that over the years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made a political fortune back home by starting crises with non-Muslim states, and Israel in particular. This is how he has succeeded in distracting the Turkish public from the burning domestic issues of the day. Erdogan knows all too well that public support for him today is at an unprecedented low: For the first time, he and his nationalist allies are not leading the "anyone but Erdogan" alliance in the polls.
The main reason for this shift is the lira's depreciation against the dollar, which reached an all-time low of 10 liras to the dollar on the day the court extended the Israeli couple's detention. Israel must therefore be very cautious and creative in order not to serve Erdogan's propaganda interests. Jerusalem must do everything in its power to bring about the release of the innocent couple, including by making use of its ties in Washington and Berlin.
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