Despite its wishes, the Iranian regime couldn't simply ignore the gigantic, earthshattering fireball that rose above the mountains east of Tehran on Friday morning.
But the miserable attempt by Iranian state-run television to claim the blast was merely the result of a gas leak only enhanced suspicions that Iran had something to hide. The camera focused on a charred gas cylinder, yet nothing was said about the buildings in Tehran that shook and rattled over 12 miles away.
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Even more conspicuous was the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' deafening silence about the "gas leak" at this sensitive site, which Western analysts believe hides a sprawling underground complex for testing and producing ballistic missiles. Was it a work accident? Or was it, perhaps, an attack from afar? Israel hasn't officially been blamed yet, but an Iranian official already tweeted that if it was an Israeli cyberattack, Israel could expect an appropriate response.
The issue is that no one in the international community believes Iran's official responses anymore. Everyone, including those countries that still adhere to the nuclear deal, take what Iran says with a grain of salt as it continues to enrich uranium, progress toward a nuclear bomb, and increase the range of its ballistic missiles. For the first time in eight years, the International Atomic Energy Agency recently criticized Tehran for preventing its inspectors from visiting suspected nuclear sites.
More than a few mysterious malfunctions have plagued Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile facilities since another large explosion, nine years ago, rocked a missile site near Tehran, killing close to 20 senior IRGC officials. Most of these malfunctions have not been reasonably explained by the regime.
But the explosion that occurred near Tehran over the weekend joins a long list of setbacks suffered by Iran in one of the most difficult periods in the Islamic republic's history.
The coronavirus pandemic has spiraled out of control, with the casualty numbers growing by the day. The Iranian economy is on the verge of collapse, with the rial on Saturday plunging to an all-time low. American sanctions choking the economy are still in place.
There is also the matter of rampant corruption, which on Saturday even spurred supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to publicly warn of systematic collapse if it doesn't stop.
As a byproduct of the country's dire economic straits and the leadership vacuum in the wake of Qassem Soleimani's assassination, the effectiveness of Iranian subversion in the region appears to be waning somewhat, along with its ability to generously help its allies. This affects Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, which for the first time are now being confronted by the new Iraqi government.
None of this means the Iranian tiger has been declawed. But the Iranian threat toward its neighbors is now viewed as less menacing, and perhaps injected the United Arab Emirates last week with the courage to openly approve a medical partnership deal with Israel to fight the coronavirus – a small step on the path to normalization.
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