The news coming from Moscow about a change in Russia's approach to Israel's military actions in Syria should cause serious alarm in Jerusalem. If the Kremlin has already made a decision to clip Israel's wings, and this isn't just a test balloon – this is a development that will have far-reaching, negative ramifications.
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Since Russian military forces entered Syria in order to keep Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime in place, the Russians have not been pleased that the Jewish state has been carrying out repeated strikes against various targets in Syria. Nevertheless, Israel has managed to retain freedom of action to defend its vital interests, and continued to operate as needed, sometimes even close to Russian military units.
Even the bloody incident in which Syrian air defenses shot down a Russian plane while trying to fend off an Israeli strike did not lead to any change in the situation. The Russians were angry at the casualties among their soldiers, but Israel was able to continue doing what it needed to.
Israel's ability to operate in Syria was the tip of the iceberg, a tangible expression of the exceptional geopolitical achievements by then-Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Unlike most world leaders, he was wise enough to build a sophisticated relationship with Moscow, especially a personal one between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin. While other world leaders deliberated between giving into the Russians' demands or finding themselves in conflict with them, Netanyahu found a third option: he leveraged Israel's military and diplomatic power to secure Russian agreement to the strikes in Syria, without the issue spilling over into a needless and dangerous clash with the "Russian bear."
This result, to which we've become so accustomed that it seems something to take for granted, was the product of calculated diplomatic work at its best, which correctly took advantages of Israel's strong points. Netanyahu knew how to make the Russian side understand how much damage Israel could do in the Syrian arena, and make them realize that friction with the IDF would hurt Russia's ability to achieve its goals. Military might wouldn't have been enough if Netanyahu hadn't know how to build a diplomatic equation that made Jerusalem a third point in a triangle whose other two points were Washington and Moscow.
The way the Russians saw it, two completely opposite things exemplified Israel's diplomatic power under Netanyahu: its ability to rope the US into promoting Israeli interests, and its ability to withstand pressure and insist on an independent stance. Putin is contemptuous of countries that automatically obey Washington's demands, and when Netanyahu demonstrated a strong position during the Obama administration, Israel scored a lot of points with the Russian president. Netanyahu built on this by knowing how to make symbolic gestures of appreciation of Russia's status as a superpower. But since Netanyahu left the Prime Minister's office, the fruits of his policies are in real danger.
Israel's new leadership is not winning fans in the Kremlin. It is seen as weak, inexperienced, and lacking in intellectual depth, and mostly as incapable of leading determined, independent policies. Moscow is hearing how the Lapid-Bennett government is promising the US to refrain from "surprises," seeing how it accepts the talks for reconciliation with Iran, and drawing the conclusion that with a government like this in place, they can change the rules of the game.
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