The hasty American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the painful terrorist attack at the airport in Kabul cast a heavy shadow over the first meeting between Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and US President Joe Biden, which was a positive one. The American press took little notice of the meeting. The US president, now exposed to barrages of criticism from all sides for the negligent execution of the planned pull-out and the failure to take the proper security precautions in light of the specific threats, appeared tired, preoccupied and withdrawn. He said little. Across the Middle East, too, the fiasco in Afghanistan, not the friendly meeting at the White House, grabbed the vast majority of the headlines. Meanwhile, a consensus emerged, between the supporters of the Iran-led "axis of evil" and Tehran's sworn enemies, that the United States is weak and turning toward isolation. It cannot be trusted.
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The conclusions, naturally, have already been divided. In Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, newspapers and social media sites spouted scathing disappointment over America's foreign policy and what appears to be a lack of strategy and resolve. The spotlight also focused on America's embarrassing restraint in the face of Iranian attacks on commercial ships and tankers in the region; on Washington's blind eye to Hezbollah's missile attacks on Israel; and on the lack of significant enforcement of the sanctions imposed on Iran.
A Saudi columnist wrote that the American weakness, which was exposed in Afghanistan, obligates every country in the region to urgently enter a joint defense alliance to contend, alone, with the threats posed by Iran and its proxy militias. Another columnist argued that the US must now give Israel "free rein" to stop Tehran.
In Iran, meanwhile, regime officials struggled to conceal their pleasure. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Tehran's most faithful ally, was the first to take the leap, declaring that following "the American defeat in Afghanistan," the US must also promptly remove its troops from Iraq and eastern Syria.
Officials in Washington and Jerusalem fear this extends beyond mere militant rhetoric and that the lessons learned by the "axis of evil" from the Afghanistan withdrawal will swiftly be applied to other arenas, such as Iraq, where pro-Iranian militias will likely amplify their efforts to oust the American forces stationed there, by renewing rocket attacks on the "Green Zone" in Baghdad and launching suicide drones at US military bases.
In the maritime arena, Iran has already decided that now is the time to up the ante and challenge the Biden administration. On Friday, according to reports, a first Iranian oil tanker embarked for Beirut following requests from Hezbollah to help Lebanon "overcome the country's fuel shortage" – in gross violation, of course, of sanctions that forbid Iran from exporting oil products. Iran, however, is flouting its disregard, and Nasrallah, who warned against any attempt to stop the tanker en route to Beirut, sees it as an excellent opportunity to expand Iranian influence in Lebanon. It goes without saying that the US could have spared itself the dilemma of how to deal with Iran's latest violation by simply beating it to the punch in helping Lebanon, but that's not what it did. In Israel, officials realize that Iranian tankers docked in Beirut can unload more than just oil.
Israeli officials were pleased that Biden said Iran will never have a nuclear bomb. Iranian officials were especially pleased over his insistence to first find a "diplomatic solution" to the nuclear crisis and only protested, for the sake of protocol, his mention of "other options."
One American president, Theodore Roosevelt, argued that Washington should speak softly and carry a big stick. Another president, Donald Trump, said America should speak strongly and carry a big stick. Iran's approach to the Biden administration in Afghanistan and the Middle East is as if it is speaking weakly and carrying a small stick. We must hope it is wrong.
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