With both Israeli and Palestinian officials absent from an upcoming economic summit in Bahrain, how much progress can possibly be made at what has been described as the first step in the US administration's long-awaited plan for Middle East peace?
According to American Enterprise Institute resident scholar and former Pentagon official Michael Rubin, "A donors' conference absent Israelis and Palestinians would be a bit of an embarrassment. That [being] said, both economic integration and Palestinian self-sufficiency are keys to a better future, deal or no deal."
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Despite being told Israel would participate in the conference by the United States, Jerusalem has yet to receive an invitation to the event. Although the Prime Minister's Office has denied reports Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no intention of "chasing an invitation," it appears Netanyahu respects Washington's decision on the matter, a senior Israeli official told Channel 13 News.
On Tuesday, however, Netanyahu indicated Israeli officials would be attending the conference, although he did not provide further details.
Nonetheless, news of the snub came as US special envoy to the Middle East Jason Greenblatt indicated the White House may delay the publication of the highly anticipated plan to November, to follow Israel's second round of elections on Sept. 17 and the High Holiday season.
"I think there's even odds as to which concludes first: The Trump administration's 'deal of the century' or O.J. Simpson's hunt for the real killer," quipped Rubin.
'One important pillar of their plan'
Responding to an inquiry from JNS, an administration official said the goal of the conference was economics and not politics.
"We will release a list of attendees closer to the workshop," said the official. "This is a workshop where we will present our economic vision for the Palestinian people. As such, we want the focus to be on the economic aspect, not the political."
According to Security Studies Group senior fellow Matthew Brodsky, Greenblatt and senior adviser to US President Donald Trump Jared Kushner recognized early on that for peace to be sustainable between Palestinians and Israelis, "they would, of course, need to address the core political issues of the conflict, but would also need to focus on an economic plan as well. They have repeatedly stated that both the political and economic plans are necessary in conjunction [with each another] and that they are designed to reinforce each other," he said.
"In other words," continued Brodsky, "this isn't an economic workshop in Bahrain instead of a political plan, but one important pillar of their plan that can only happen in the context of a political solution."
Daniel Pipes, president of the Middle East Forum, dismissed the economic approach to the conflict.
"I don't believe in the economic approach, so even if it were a successful conference, I think it would be unsuccessful," Pipes told JNS. "Nothing is going to be successful economically. It's rather a small amount in the larger aspect of the conflict."
"Nobody is particularly enthusiastic about handing over tens of billions [of dollars]," he added.
In addition to Israel and the Palestinians, other major world powers, such as Russia and China, are not set to attend. The European Union will only send a "technical level official" to Bahrain, according to EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, who met with Kushner last week ahead of the conference.
Nevertheless, several Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, have said that they will attend.
"It is wise to encourage more moderate Arab stakeholders to help guide the Palestinians, rather than rely on countries like Qatar and Turkey, which fund extremism," said Rubin.
But the Palestinians on Thursday boasted they had foiled the Bahrain conference by encouraging others to boycott the Trump administration.
In a statement to the Palestinian Authority's official Wafa news agency, spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh said, "Any meeting, whether in Bahrain or elsewhere and without the legitimate Palestinian endorsement, proves that Washington cannot and will not succeed on its own in achieving anything."
Rubin cautioned the PA's strategy was likely destined to fail.
"Previously, the Taliban, North Korea, and Iran have lost their bets when they gambled on the outcome of US elections," he said.
"Even if [PA President] Mahmoud Abbas thinks he can do better if a Democrat returns to the Oval Office, he likely misjudges the mood both in Congress and in many Arab capitals, all of whom are becoming exasperated with Palestinian corruption and rejectionism."
This article is reprinted with permission from JNS.org.
