We will never know, apparently, whether the Oknin affair was an isolated event catalyzed by a lowly Turkish police officer or an ambush planned in advance by Turkish intelligence. Regardless, now is the time to draw conclusions.
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In the wake of the affair, we can say definitively that a dangerous precedent was set in terms of Israeli national security, and that various countries could now perhaps adopt a strategy of "framing" innocent Israelis to cynically exploit Israel's desire to protect its citizens. Essentially, this noble Israeli policy is perceived by many countries as a weakness that allows them to extort the Jewish state for diplomatic, social, or strategic gain.
In hindsight, it's safe to say that by extending the Oknin's remand in Turkish custody, Ankara employed this very tactic. Turkey viewed the Oknin's Jewish and Israeli identity alike as a pressure point to press against Israel. By doing so, Ankara intended to close a circle that in its view had remained open for the past month.
As a reminder, Turkey accused the Mossad of running a spy network on its soil. The members of this alleged network – Palestinians and Syrians without Israeli citizenship –allegedly tracked Hamas members in Turkey and reported back to their Israeli handlers on their activities. Contrary to the Oknin affair, the "Mossad affair" made wall-to-wall headlines in Turkey. When officials in Ankara demanded clear explanations from their Israeli counterparts, Israel opted to turn a cold shoulder. It appears this conduct was perceived by Ankara as a diplomatic humiliation. This was the precise pretext, apparently, for Ankara's decision to use the Oknin couple's arrest as a means to extract from Israel what they'd wanted from the "Mossad affair."
Now, upon the affair's conclusion, various Israeli officials are stressing that Jerusalem made no diplomatic concessions to Turkey. Perhaps this is true, time will tell. The silence of the Turkish press on the matter, however, implies that Ankara's gambit wasn't meant to garner public favor, rather something more important and tangible in the intelligence sphere. The very fact that Mossad chief David Barnea was involved in the affair, and that he managed to secure the Oknin's release, bolsters the assessment that this was an intelligence matter pure and simple.
What then could Turkey have wanted from Israel? Considering the obvious points of diplomatic friction between the two countries, there's a reasonable chance that Turkey's demands mainly focused on four key areas: Hamas activity in Turkey, and Turkish activity in Gaza, Judea and Samaria, and Jerusalem. If and when such a deal is ever made, Israel could agree to cease operations on Turkish soil, including via various "subcontractors."
Meanwhile, we can assume Israel would grant full freedom of activity to Turkish NGOs, which for their part want to entrench themselves in Judea and Samaria and Gaza even more. Granting them such permission in Jerusalem would be a grave mistake in terms of Israeli interests, as these NGOs are already working – openly – against the "Judaization of Jerusalem." Alongside the humanitarian aspect, there is concern that Turkey would seek to supplant Egypt as the de-facto mediator between Hamas and Israel on a possible prisoner exchange – and even to end future rounds of fighting. Granting such status to Turkey would be a strategic error of the highest order.
Taking into account Thursday's phone call between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Isaac Herzog and potential developments, it's indeed possible that Israel wants to normalize relations. Although normalization on paper is considered something positive and necessary for Israel's security, the decision-makers in Jerusalem need to be cognizant of the side-effects of normalization with Ankara. That is to say, Israel needs to maintain the integrity of the alliances it has struck with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Israeli leaders need to understand that the Jewish state is no longer the same isolated country it was in 1948. Israel is stronger today than it's ever been. Therefore, any move toward normalization with Turkey is most welcome, if it is indeed actual normalization that serves the country's immediate interests.
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