The United States is intensifying efforts to prevent a potential Iranian attack on Israel, as tensions in the region reach a critical point, according to reporting from the Wall Street Journal. The Biden administration is grappling with the challenge of containing Iran's actions, which could surpass the scale of its April missile and drone assault on Israel.
US officials have issued stern warnings to Tehran, both directly and through intermediaries, about the severe consequences an attack on Israel could have for Iran's government and economy. The situation has put both nations in a precarious position, with neither seeking this escalation but now forced to navigate the possibility of a broader conflict.
"We truly don't know if they will do it, when they will do it, and with what force they will do it. We don't have firm answers for all of that right now," a senior administration official told the WSJ. "But we believe an attack of some sort could very well come, potentially soon and without much notice."
The current crisis was triggered by an attack in Tehran that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which Iran blamed on Israel. This incident occurred shortly after an Israeli strike killed a Hezbollah commander in Beirut. Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, asserted it was his country's "legal right" to retaliate.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office has indicated cooperation with White House de-escalation efforts, agreeing to participate in US-organized cease-fire talks. However, Israel has also threatened a harsh response to any Iranian attack and hasn't ruled out an offensive in southern Lebanon if Hezbollah strikes.
President Biden told reporters on Tuesday that he expected Iran would refrain from strikes if the parties reached a deal. But he acknowledged "it's getting harder" to complete a cease-fire agreement. US officials are traveling to Qatar for another round of diplomacy, with White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre stating, "We expect these talks to move forward as planned."
Hamas has announced it won't attend the negotiations this week, while Netanyahu has shown little willingness to compromise in recent months. US officials admit that the possibility of a comprehensive agreement is diminishing, prompting the development of a "bridging proposal" to resolve differences between Hamas and Israel.
Dalia Dassa Kaye, a Middle East security expert at UCLA's Burkle Center for International Relations, observed, "Without a cease-fire, it's hard to see the Iranians, or Hezbollah for that matter, backing off."
Iran faces several challenging options, each with significant drawbacks. Backing down could be perceived as weakness, while a massive attack risks broader conflict and Israeli counterstrikes. Repeating the April barrage might appear ineffective while still increasing the chances of a wider war.
"There is no doubt intense debate within Iran's leadership about how to respond because none of their options look good," Kaye told the WSJ. The Biden administration's initial strategy of containing Iran through nuclear deal revival and regional alliances has been challenged by Tehran's actions, including its support for proxies that killed US troops in Jordan and its backing of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Iran's decision to directly attack Israel in April marked a significant shift from its usual proxy-based approach. The US has responded by deploying additional military assets to the region, including F-22 Raptors and the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. A senior administration official told the WSJ, "We know they are paying attention to our messages. We don't know if it's changing their minds."
However, Dana Stroul, former top Pentagon civilian for the Middle East, cautioned that Iran is unlikely to cease its aggressive behavior, stating, "By over-messaging the desire to prevent full-scale war, Iran has interpreted this as a US lack of will to take offensive action."
