So far, Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani) is playing his cards right. He calls for tolerance toward minorities in Syria, advocates utilizing the administrative infrastructure of the old regime to quickly restore normalcy, and gives interviews to both Syrian and international media to present himself and his organization, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, in a positive light.
Al-Julani has learned how to appeal to the West, giving it exactly what it wants to hear. In an interview with Syria TV, a channel operating out of Turkey, the rebel leader declared: "We must transition from a revolutionary mentality to a state-oriented mentality to govern Syria."
A calculated approach toward the West
Another statement that resonated with the West came when al-Julani, in his first comments regarding Israel, acknowledged that the Syrian people are exhausted after years of war. Consequently, he claimed, the current situation "does not allow for entering new conflicts." He added, "The priority at this stage is reconstruction and stability, not getting dragged into conflicts that could lead to further destruction." Notably, Syria TV did not provide a direct quote about Israel but instead relayed the general tone of al-Julani's comments.
Without a doubt, to an external observer, the terrorist who once belonged to ISIS and Al-Qaeda, who was involved in horrifying acts of violence, and who has a $10 million US bounty on his head, seems to have shed his violent persona, laid down his weapons, and become a man of peace. al-Julani's statements have evidently impressed not only Western media but also the US government. Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledged that the US is in contact with rebel groups, including Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, and stated: "Our message to the Syrian people is this: we want them to succeed, and we are ready to help them achieve that."
However, rhetoric and reality often diverge. Despite his seemingly conciliatory statements about Israel, al-Julani noted that "Israel's claims [about attacks in Syria] have weakened and no longer justify its recent violations," referring to ground incursions into Syria. He added that Israel's actions "threaten unjustified escalation in the region." Last Friday, the Syrian delegation to the UN filed a complaint against Israel, condemning Israeli airstrikes and incursions into Syrian territory.
Syria accused "Israeli aggression" of violating the 1974 ceasefire agreements and called for "firm and immediate measures" to ensure Israel's withdrawal from Syria.
A strategic build-up for future confrontation
If we strip away al-Julani's pacifist veneer, it becomes clear that his organization and the "new Syria" he seeks to govern have already laid the groundwork for a future confrontation with Israel. This clash may not occur now or in the near term, but the pretext is already on: If Israel does not withdraw from Syria or continues targeting military assets and strategic infrastructure, it risks conflict.
We must not be misled. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's name reflects its goal. Its mission extends beyond liberating Syria – it seeks to establish "Greater Syria," which includes Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel. Even now, numerous videos of rebel groups are circulating, declaring that their next stop is Al-Aqsa in Jerusalem. Al-Shara's choice of the alias "Al-Julani" (from the Golan) was not coincidental.
Returning to the interview with Syria TV, one of al-Julani's additional remarks reveals the depth of his religious commitment, which has driven his fight against the Assad regime and continues to guide his vision for Syria: "We are tools used by Allah to achieve victory over the decayed regime, but the effort is the effort of all Syrians."
If Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham is, as al-Julani describes it, a tool in Allah's hands, today Allah has chosen to use it to overthrow the Assad regime. Tomorrow, it could be directed against any other perceived enemy – including Israel.
