Crucial elections scheduled for February 23 in Germany will shape the future of Europe's most influential nation and the European Union. The early elections were triggered by the collapse of the "traffic light" coalition (named after the party colors) between the Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens, following disputes over government economic policy.
While the left-wing parties – the Social Democrats and the Greens – demanded the government increase its budget deficit, Finance Minister and center-right FDP leader Christian Lindner refused to deviate from the "black zero" policy, which requires the government to maintain a nearly balanced budget. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leader of the Social Democratic Party, ultimately dismissed Lindner from the government.
Unlike the September 2021 elections, where climate change dominated the campaign following floods that claimed about 200 lives two months earlier, immigration and Islamic terror threats have become the central issues this time. Two recent attacks carried out by Muslim immigrants – a December attack at a Christmas market in Magdeburg that left six dead and 300 injured, and last week's attack in Munich that injured dozens – have intensified public criticism of immigration policies.
Many Germans now recognize that former Chancellor Angela Merkel's decision to open the country's borders to millions of Middle Eastern refugees in the summer of 2015 was devastating. Merkel, who led the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) and governed Germany from 2005 to 2021, initiated a refugee policy that continues to generate controversy. The refugee issue intersects with economic concerns, another key campaign focus. Many Germans are frustrated with the rising cost of living and question why the state continues to fund the massive refugee project that began under Merkel and continued under the traffic light coalition.
While the left maintains illusions that immigration is part of the solution for Germany's aging population, the right calls for clear measures against it. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) led by Friedrich Merz, who according to all predictions is expected to become the next chancellor, advocates for significant immigration reduction. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), led by Alice Weidel, demands an immediate halt to immigration and deportation of illegal immigrants. This hardline stance has made AfD the second-largest party in Germany according to polls, with 22% support, while CDU/CSU leads with 30%. Together, these parties command 52% of public support, up from their combined 34% in 2021 (24% for CDU/CSU and 10% for AfD).
In contrast, the traffic light coalition, which won 52% in 2021 (26% for SPD, 15% for Greens, and 11% for FDP), is expected to collapse in the upcoming election. Polls show SPD likely dropping to 16%, the Greens weakening slightly, and FDP at risk of not clearing the 5% threshold. The far left, which ran as a united list in 2021 and received 5%, has split into two parties that barely poll above the threshold, with at least one expected to enter parliament.
Polls indicate that forming a coalition will be complex, challenging, or nearly impossible. The natural move would be to form a full right-wing government led by the Christian Democrats and Alternative for Germany, but AfD faces a boycott over allegations it resembles a certain party that ruled Germany from 1933 to 1945.
Interestingly, regarding support for Israel, antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment actually come from the German left, which holds negative views toward Israel and supports the Palestinian struggle against the Jewish state, while the German right sees Israel as the last bastion of Western civilization in the Middle East. One thing is certain – a political crisis due to internal boycotts would be devastating for Germany.
