The ceasefire imposed on Israel in Lebanon, following the ceasefire imposed on it in Iran, following the ceasefire imposed on it in Gaza, has left Israel in a troubling position in which it is once again failing to convert the many operational achievements of the IDF into a strategic outcome.
In fact, after 925 days of fighting since October 7, Israel has failed to achieve a decisive result on any front. Hamas remains standing and is engaged in rapid reconstruction. Hezbollah survived a severe campaign and hollow threats of destruction. Iran may emerge from the confrontation stronger than before. Israel did inflict heavy damage on all three, as well as on the Houthis in Yemen, but by the end of the campaign it is seen as a country whose affairs are decided not in Jerusalem, but in Washington.
In a speech he delivered in the Knesset while in opposition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that an Israeli prime minister is judged by one thing alone: his ability to say "no" to the president of the United States. In practice, against Donald Trump, Netanyahu failed. The US president's post on Friday, in which he said in large letters that he was forbidding Israel from attacking in Lebanon, was not only an operational directive. It was a public humiliation and a severe blow to Israeli power and deterrence.
Trump, it seems, is tired of wars. He is looking for a quick and elegant exit before being dragged back into them. In Iran, there is indeed a gap between his optimistic posts and the reality on the ground, in which the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, one day after reopening. But even Israeli officials involved in the talks believe that, at the moment, the space for agreement between the sides is greater than the space for disagreement.
According to them, it appears that on the issue of missiles and support for proxy forces, Israel will not get what it wants. It must make sure that, amid the rush of events, the US does not agree to dangerous concessions on the nuclear issue, both regarding the removal of highly enriched uranium and Iran's ability to resume enrichment in the foreseeable future.
Frustration in northern Israel
In Lebanon, matters are no less complicated. Israel has been restricted to activity in southern Lebanon, and even there only for defensive purposes to protect its forces. That is a proven recipe for attacks, casualties and growing frustration among residents of northern Israel, who once again find themselves dealing with broken promises about the "last campaign," which supposedly would not end "until victory."
But unlike Gaza, where the "total victory" that was promised has also not been achieved, the north is facing collapse. The erosion of trust on the security issue and the complete abandonment on the civilian side are a proven recipe for accelerating the trend of outmigration, which could determine the fate of the region.
Israel's only way out of this entanglement is through an agreement with Lebanon. The path there is littered with obstacles, chief among them the Lebanese government's very limited, if not nonexistent, ability to uphold any commitments it takes upon itself. Lebanon's president already finds himself threatened by Hezbollah, which has warned him not to talk to Israel, with the hidden message explicitly alluding to the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and, earlier, members of the Gemayel family.
In the background, Iran is also stirring events in Lebanon, and so far with considerable success. After Israel had previously separated the fronts, they have now been reunited, another Israeli strategic failure.
The road to recovery
These developments place Israel in an uncomfortable position at the start of its 79th year. Ostensibly, it boasts of being a regional power, perhaps even a global one, as Netanyahu claimed. In practice, it is turning itself into an American protectorate. Social media mocked that reality over the weekend, suggesting that Israel should celebrate its independence on July 4. That is of course an exaggeration, but Israel would still do well to stop and recalculate its course.
A reality in which Qatar and Turkey are meddling in Gaza, Hezbollah is immune in Lebanon, Iran is immune, Qatar is immune, and most of the public around the world, including the US, is hostile toward Israel, is deeply problematic, especially when Trump is soon to enter another election campaign that will mark the second and final half of his time in the White House.
The path to recovery begins at home. On the eve of Memorial Day for the Fallen Soldiers of Israel and Victims of Terrorism, with the inconceivable number of fallen soldiers, priorities must be put in proper order: those who serve before those who do not, those who live along the border before those who do not, those who stand for solidarity before those who do not. It is that simple.
