With tanker traffic near zero and fuel prices rising, Washington faces hard choices – escort missions, coastline seizure, or targeting Iran's Kharg oil island – as military advisors say time is running short. John Jensen, a former Marine Corps general and senior adviser to the Kinetica Fund: “One of the most effective tools available to an American commander.”
Cairo has so far taken on the role of mediator in the war with Iran, but local media is clearly leaning toward Tehran. For now, Egypt appears to prefer preserving the current balance of power in the region.
Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates are causing significant damage, and patience in Abu Dhabi appears to be wearing thin. Even if the US and Israel destroy most of the missiles, one threat will continue to worry Gulf states until a new player joins the fight against the ayatollahs.
Thousands of targets, a divided battlespace, and Gulf states on the brink – how Israel and America are waging their first-ever side-by-side war.
With the ayatollah regime facing an existential crisis, Iranian missiles have struck Saudi Aramco facilities, prompting a regional energy shutdown and drawing European military forces into a burgeoning US-led coalition.
While Israel would prefer to see the regime in Tehran collapse, Middle Eastern states are hoping for the exact opposite. The reason? A civil war in Iran could trigger refugee waves and disrupt key shipping lanes. Yet, if the regime falls, a pro Western government could emerge as a regional power.
This is the largest US deployment in the Middle East since 2003. Two aircraft carriers, 13 destroyers and dozens of fighter jets. In Israel, F-22s are already on the runway and refueling aircraft are stationed at Ben-Gurion Airport. In the Gulf, assets evacuated from vulnerable bases in Qatar while all US vessels leave Bahrain port for open sea.
From a Supreme Court tariff blow to Epstein anger among young voters, a convergence of domestic pressures is forcing the White House to weigh military action against the political cost of getting it wrong.
Expelled from the White House, Ukraine's president learned to work Trump, fired his all-powerful chief of staff amid a $100 million bribery scandal, and rebuilt his inner circle as Kyiv enters what could be a decisive year.
It is clear that militarily, Iran is not capable of challenging the United States militarily. The US, then, must answer one basic question: What does success look like, and at what cost?
