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Three years after the October 7 attack, Hamas is fighting to survive the war to face the day after. As the IDF continues to push back the terrorist organization and weaken its capabilities, Hamas is preserving fighters and weapons for the moment the situation in Gaza changes. Israeli assessments suggest the road to defeating Hamas remains long.
When the Nukhba terrorists' SIM cards came online in the middle of the night, he was unfazed. When NCO V. warned that Hamas was preparing to invade, he dismissed her concerns. People who knew him say he tailored his assessments to what the political echelon wanted to hear. A profile of the Gaza Division intelligence officer whose name was cleared for publication.
The terrorist organization's growing strength and the weakening regional response demand new ways of confronting the threat from Yemen. Alongside support for the Houthis' opponents and the development of local capabilities, Israel must prepare to act against the group's leadership. If the danger is not stopped in time, the implications are clear.
A CIA warning in Moscow and a wave of cyberattacks and sabotage have put Europe on heightened alert, with fuel shortages and the prospect of a new Russian mobilization are fueling fears of an attack on the Suwałki Gap or a provocation on the Polish border. The Kremlin, meanwhile, denies any aggressive intentions.
Hezbollah has been weakened, the Houthis grow in confidence, the militias in Iraq are under pressure and pro-Iranian cells are trying to regain a foothold in Syria. At the same time, tensions between Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have come into the open. Three years after threats of a regional war, Tehran is trying to rebuild its proxy network and adapt it to a new reality.
Turkey's quiet push to entrench itself near Aleppo forced Israel's hand. The strike worked, and now is not the time to accept limits on Israeli freedom of action – in this neighborhood, people tend to listen only once actions start speaking.
Ankara's covert military influence in Syria has been on Israel's radar for over a year – whether it's APCs given as a "gift" to Al-Sharaa or Turkey's aerial capabilities. The strike on Abu al-Duhur signals an end to Jerusalem's containment strategy.
The IMF projects Iran's economy will shrink sharply this year, contracting somewhere between 5.4% and 6.1%. Nominal GDP has already plunged around 29% from 2017, and the dollar now buys 2 million rials. However, a parallel, sanctions-proof economy may be maintaining the regime. Only one thing would make the regime buckle.
A July 30 study by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs concluded that the PA's policy of financially supporting terrorists “materially facilitated” Hamas’ ability to “prepare for and execute” the massacre. The author of the report, IDF Lt. Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch, hopes his study will provide a still stronger basis for lawsuits against the PA.
Nearly three years into the war, Israel remains locked in open conflict on four fronts: Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. All are interconnected and, to varying degrees, directed from Tehran. In the near term, every scenario is looking toward two dates: Israel’s elections in late October and the US midterm elections in early November.
