Iran & The Gulf

Iran’s unemployment rate has passed 50%, and the regime is feeling the pressure. Pakistan’s chief of staff promised the Americans he could bring Iran to a deal on the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue, but so far he has failed. The reason: Every time the Iranian political echelon is prepared to compromise, the Revolutionary Guards stop the move and wait for cracks to appear on the American side.

Iranian reports say explosions were heard at several sites in the Strait of Hormuz area. According to an Israeli source, the Iranians fired missiles at a US warship after it prevented a tanker from passing through the strait, and the Americans returned fire. US official confirms: We struck Bandar Abbas, but this is not a restarting of the war.

Diplomatic officials in the region believe the reason for the delay in Iran’s response is Tehran’s demand to make changes to the emerging document before conveying its official position on it. According to the same officials, Iran is also walking back previous understandings regarding a ban on enrichment and the handover of enriched uranium.

According to a classified report by the CIA, Iran could withstand three to four months of a naval blockade. The report also says Iran still has about 75% of the mobile missile launchers it had before the war and about 70% of its ballistic missile stockpile. Satellite images from recent weeks document the regime’s reconstruction efforts. 

The Wall Street Journal has revealed the document Washington sent Tehran, which demands that Iran fully divest itself of highly enriched material and stop enrichment for 15 years. In return, the US would end the blockade and lift some sanctions on Iran.

Netanyahu stressed at the start of the cabinet meeting that Israel and the US were acting in “full coordination” on the Iranian issue. “The most important goal is to remove all enriched material from Iran.” Trump said pressure on Tehran was continuing and that the Iranians “want to make a deal.” The US president made clear: “We will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. They have one week to reach a deal.”

The US will release frozen Iranian funds to finance imports of basic goods that will ease Iran's humanitarian situation. The Americans are willing to ease the naval blockade, but only if they receive guarantees that agreements reached by the Iranian political echelon will not be canceled by the Revolutionary Guards. One issue remains unresolved: the payment Iran is demanding from ships that pass through the strait.

In a late-night Truth Social post, the president froze the Hormuz operation while keeping the blockade in force, citing major progress toward a final agreement with Tehran.

After Iran fired on the United Arab Emirates, a US official said the regime could hold out for several more weeks, but economic pressure “will force the commanders to seek an end.” Netanyahu briefed President Trump on his talks with the leaders, and according to diplomatic officials from the region, the talks also addressed tightening security cooperation. 

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth maintains the ceasefire is intact despite Iran's recent attacks.