The multi-year strategy, to which the Islamic regime in Iran under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's leadership clung, of preventing entry into war and distancing threats from Iran's territory, collapsed in one fell swoop with Iran's entry into war following Israel's surprise attack in Operation Rising Lion.
In the days that have passed since, Tehran attempts to offset the strategic blow it received through aspiring to implement Khamenei's directive "to make Israel miserable" by means of severe attacks that would cause it to regret its surprising move.
When appointed to replace Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, Khamenei was charged with the mission of his life – to preserve the precious trust placed in his hands, the Islamic regime. Since then, Khamenei has conducted battles not only against his rivals in the political arena in Iran, who oppose the conservative-ideological line he leads, but has also fought obsessively against the campaign to overthrow the regime by his opponents.
According to Khamenei's worldview, the US and Israel strive to achieve this goal, and they operate intensively in the cultural, political, social, and economic arenas to realize their objective. Against this, Khamenei has consistently called on his people and supporters to demonstrate vigilance and identify enemy activity in these arenas in order to thwart them in advance.
The regime's battle over the hearts and minds
Now, the intensive attacks under which the regime finds itself, the elimination of senior commanders and nuclear scientists, the severe damage to command and control apparatuses and to nuclear facilities are causing severe damage that the regime has never experienced before, even in the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), in which it lost hundreds of thousands of people. The historic American attack against nuclear facilities, chiefly among them Fordo, adds significantly to the difficulty facing the leadership in Tehran.
Still, it appears premature to determine that the regime has buckled under the pressure. In a calculated move, it cut off the internet in the country with the goal of controlling the consciousness of its citizens, and operates continuous waves of arrests throughout Iran against those who undermine the regime narrative and "disrupt public opinion."
Conversely, it tries to strengthen a sense of achievement among its people and in society generally, through false reports of downing Israeli F-35 aircraft in Iran, and ongoing public relations efforts to the public emphasizing the continued functional continuity of the regime, supply of basic products and preservation of order in the country.
The achievement declared in the war by Israel is the removal of threats from the nuclear program, terror apparatus and missile array. It is doubtful whether Israel can be satisfied with this achievement, given the regime DNA of the Islamic Republic that inscribed Israel's destruction on its flag.
Gholam-Ali Rashid, commander of the emergency command center, Khatam al-Anbiya, who was eliminated in the opening blow of the war, aptly described the way Iran aspires to destroy Israel. In an interview with Iranian media on May 5, 2024, he described how he spread out the region's map in his office, and worked together with additional senior figures from the security system on a plan for Israel's elimination.
Rashid explained in the interview that if a significant and multi-theater raid against Israel takes place from southern Lebanon, from the Golan, and from the West Bank and Gaza, "then its story will end, and the IDF will be destroyed." He emphasized that the October 7 attack was an example of this, since Israel failed to function properly even against one guerrilla organization.
Historic opportunity for regime overthrow
The possible entry of the US under President Donald Trump's leadership into the war, which strengthens in light of the American attack early Sunday morning, could immeasurably strengthen the war effort. Beyond the damage inflicted on the nuclear facility at Fordo but also help shake the regime's pillars.
The Islamic regime has a destruction contract on Israel and has worked intensively to achieve nuclear weapons and destroy it through cruel terror. In the Middle East there is no place for two states, Islamic Iran and the State of Israel. If Israel desires life it must aspire to overthrow the regime.
The Iranian regime fights today alone, after the proxy array it established and nurtured over decades collapsed, and thus Iran remains exposed and particularly vulnerable. Even the broad legitimacy in the international arena that Israel enjoys in its war signals the regime's isolation.
Given broad popular uprising in Iran, within which the masses would take to the streets and demand the regime's overthrow, the Iranian opposition would gain support, in a graduated process, from Western governments.
Revolutions are inherently volatile and tough to spark from abroad, but escalating attacks on regime strongholds and oppressive mechanisms could ignite public belief that the moment for upheaval has arrived.
Dr. Yossi Mansharof is an expert on Iran and Shiite political Islam at the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, in Jerusalem.
