Iran & The Gulf

Tehran cleared to export crude immediately, with broader financial relief contingent on nuclear concessions.

Diplomatic officials confirm Washington secretly authorized Doha to transfer funds to Tehran in exchange for freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and immunity from attacks. The dual policy was intended to curb global energy prices, and served as the basis for the memorandum of understanding being forged with the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards.

The Diplomatic-Security Cabinet gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a green light to decouple the Lebanon front from the Iran deal – and said it will hold the line even if Washington keeps pushing back.

US President Donald Trump said Washington and Tehran had reached an agreement that includes an Iranian commitment not to obtain nuclear weapons and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He later announced that the agreement had been finalized and ordered the US naval blockade lifted.

All the way, at any cost: The US president has adopted his Middle East envoys' position on Iran, and the price could be steep. At the same time, he has embraced a hostile narrative toward Netanyahu, in line with Vice President JD Vance's view that the prime minister is trying to derail the deal. Senior US officials are warning that anyone who dares oppose the chosen direction on Iran will pay a personal price.

In an unusual and tense call between the two leaders, the US president expressed anger over the Israeli strike in Dahiyeh, criticized Netanyahu's judgment and demanded that he refrain from further attacks. Trump claimed the move delayed the signing of the agreement with Iran and said he would act to prevent an Iranian response against Israel.

The deputy head of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the supreme command of Iran's armed forces, threatened that the Israeli Air Force strike in Beirut "will not go unanswered." Iranian parliament speaker: "The strike proves the US cannot be trusted."

The US President and his advisers are convinced that without reopening the Strait of Hormuz and bringing down oil prices, the global economy will slide into recession. For this reason, Trump is approving a memorandum of understanding whose only practical significance is the reopening of the strait. All other issues will be discussed afterward. The White House has told Israeli officials that in the final agreement, if one is signed, the US will achieve all the original goals for which it went to war.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the new commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ahmad Vahidi, has become one of the most influential power centers in Tehran in recent months and is leading a hard-line approach toward the US. While mediators report progress toward an agreement, Iranian and Arab officials say Vahidi is pushing for continued military pressure, including urging fire at Israel in response to the attack on Hezbollah.

Iran has agreed to hand over its enriched uranium, forgo enrichment in the long term and open the Strait of Hormuz without restrictions. The clause that paved the way for understandings: the release of up to $15 billion for humanitarian needs, under Qatari supervision. Should the final details be concluded and agreed, the emerging expectation is that the deal will be signed early next week, most likely in Geneva, Switzerland.